- Global Payments Market: Growth is Projected to Slow to 5% Annually by 2028
- The growth of payment companies, historically compared to technology sectors, has diminished; their total shareholder return (TSR) is now more aligned with the S&P 500 average, reflecting a maturation of the market.
In the current context, global payments are driven by technology, but the market is undergoing a transition that reflects its maturation. Where growth was once rampant, expectations now focus on achieving more sustainable and profitable development. Investors, regulators, and customers are no longer just demanding expansion; they are looking for business models that ensure long-term stability, according to the report Fortune Favors the Bold: Global Payments Report 2024 prepared by Boston Consulting Group.
Technological evolution and increasing regulatory scrutiny have redefined the rules of the game for payment companies, necessitating rapid adaptation. As this sector faces a more competitive and challenging landscape, the ability of companies to keep pace with change will determine their future success.
Global payments market: slowing growth
Historically, payment companies have exhibited impressive growth, comparable to that of rapidly rising technology sectors. However, in recent years, a slowdown has been noted. Total shareholder return (TSR), which previously outperformed many other industries, is now aligning more closely with the average of the S&P 500 index, indicating greater maturity in the payments market.
This shift has led investors to focus more on the fundamentals of companies, differentiating between those with stable and predictable revenues and those relying on more volatile sources. Projections indicate that global payment sector revenue growth will slow by 50% by 2028. It is expected that this revenue will increase at a compound annual growth rate of only 5%, reaching $2.3 trillion. This represents a significant decrease from the 9% growth recorded over the past five years, when global revenues reached $1.8 trillion in 2023.
Several structural, macroeconomic, and operational factors explain this trend. Among these, the saturation of the transition from cash payments to digital payments is reaching its peak. Additionally, interest rates, which had previously boosted profitability, are now declining alongside more moderate inflation. Finally, operational pressures are intensifying, with payment companies facing rising operational costs.
Key disruptions in the payments sector
Technology has been a fundamental factor in transforming the landscape of global payments, but it is not the only one. Several disruptive forces are reshaping the industry, forcing companies to adapt or fall behind.
Macroeconomic pressures: The reduction in interest rates and the stabilization of inflation are eroding deposit margins, particularly in regions like Europe and North America. This situation is compounded by a shift in consumer habits, as people seek higher-yield financial products. This trend impacts traditional revenue models based on deposits.
Stagnation in the shift to digital payments: In key markets such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe, the adoption of digital payments has reached its peak, limiting one of the primary growth drivers for the sector. The industry, which had relied on this transition, must now find new sources of expansion.
Increased regulatory scrutiny: Growing oversight and the imposition of harsher penalties for non-compliance are putting the capital of payment companies at risk. Globally, regulations are becoming more stringent, compelling companies to invest significantly in enhancing their risk management and strengthening their compliance infrastructure.
Technological inefficiencies and rising costs: Payment companies also face significant operational challenges, such as reliance on outdated legacy systems, which increase maintenance costs and hinder innovation. Technological modernization is not optional; it is essential to remain competitive.
The path to the future: strategic decisions
In light of these challenges, payment companies must rethink their strategies and adopt bolder approaches. While global payments are driven by technology, long-term success requires a profound transformation in several key areas.
Technological modernization: Companies need to implement cloud-based, modular, and scalable infrastructures that enable greater operational efficiency and rapid product innovation. A focus on technological modernization will not only improve profit margins but also generate more value for customers.
Reinventing banking payments: Banks, in particular, must reimagine their role in the payments ecosystem. Leaders in this area will not only focus on optimizing their core business but also explore new expansion opportunities into adjacent businesses and high-value innovative models.
Engagement in emerging infrastructures: The adoption of emerging technologies, such as instant payments and digital currencies, is one of the most promising areas. These innovations have the potential to offer greater transaction speed, meet regulatory demands, and enhance the user experience. Companies that lead the adoption of these technologies will position themselves at the forefront of the sector.
Strengthening compliance and risk management: As regulations become stricter, it is imperative that companies bolster their compliance and risk management functions. In addition to avoiding penalties, a strong compliance infrastructure will enhance investor confidence and ensure sustainable growth.
The global payments market faces a complex and evolving environment. Companies that can navigate these challenges and leverage technology to modernize their infrastructure, align their strategies with new regulations, and adopt innovative business models will be the ones that thrive in the future.